India Faces Nearly 100% Rain Deficiency in January, Impacting Crops and Glaciers

Several states and union territories in India are grappling with a nearly 100% rain deficiency in January, following a significant deficit in December, which are traditionally peak winter months for North India. The absence of robust western disturbances (WDs) is cited as the primary reason for the dearth of winter precipitation, causing cold wave conditions and affecting the Rabi (winter) crop. This unusual weather pattern may be attributed to global warming, melting Arctic Sea ice, or natural variability, and it has broader implications for Himalayan glaciers and water resources in the region.

Key Points:

1. Rain Deficiency and Western Disturbances:

• Six states and two union territories have recorded nearly 100% rain deficiency in January after a substantial deficit in December, impacting the winter season.
• The lack of active western disturbances (WDs) over North India is a key factor. Typically, five to seven WDs impact the region between December and January, but this winter has seen no active WDs affecting the area.
• The jet stream is moving north of India, and WDs are forming along with jet stream instability, but this instability is not within the Indian region.

1. Potential Causes of Unusual Pattern:

• The absence of active WDs could be linked to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
• Global warming, Arctic Sea ice melting, and natural variability are potential factors contributing to this atypical weather pattern.
• The detailed study is needed to understand the specific causes.

1. Impact on Crops and Water Resources:

• The deficiency in rain and snowfall poses a risk to the Rabi (winter) crop. Artificial irrigation may be required to protect crops like wheat.
• Himalayan glaciers, vital for downstream water resources, depend on precipitation falling as snow. The climate crisis has already affected the Himalayas, leading to lower snowfall and increased snowmelt.

1. Tourism and Future Warming Concerns:

• Dry, snowless peaks are impacting tourism in regions like Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
• The absence of active WDs and shortage of rain and snow may lead to a warmer spring, affecting the transition of seasons.

1. Contrast with IMD Predictions:

• The meteorological reality contrasts with the Indian Meteorological Department’s (IMD) earlier prediction of above-normal rainfall in January 2024 over North India.
• The lack of precipitation may have implications for the agriculture sector and water resources.

1. Climate Crisis Impact on Western Disturbances:

• Studies indicate a decreasing trend in frequency and intensity of WDs in the present and near-future due to the climate crisis.
• While the current trend shows a decline, far-future projections suggest an increasing trend in WD intensity.

The unusual weather conditions raise concerns about the broader impact of climate change on regional weather patterns, agriculture, and water resources.